SYNC, AND SWIM TOGETHER
By Daniel Kahneman and Andrew M. Rosenfield
When faced with disaster, the natural response of people — and businesses — is to fight for time and hope for the best. The likely outcome of this strategy would be a succession of failures that would spare no one. We believe that there is a better way: simultaneous bankruptcy filing by all three companies would substantially reduce both the uncertainty and the stigma for each one.
DANIEL KAHNEMAN, an emeritus professor of psychology at Princeton, received the Nobel in economics in 2002. ANDREW M. ROSENFIELD is a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School and the chairman of an investment advisory firm.
Daniel Kahneman's Edge Bio Page
Andrew M. Rosenfield's Edge Bio Page
... |
THE IMPRINTED BRAIN THEORY
By Christopher Badcock
FL.jpg)
According to the so-called imprinted brain theory,
the paradoxes can be explained in terms of the expression of genes, and not
simply their inheritance. Imprinted genes are those which are only expressed
when they are inherited from one parent rather than the other. The classic
example is IGF2, a growth factor gene only normally expressed when inherited
from the father, but silent when inherited from the mother. According to the most
widely-accepted theory, genes like IGF2 are silenced by mammalian mothers
because only the mother has to pay the costs associated with gestating and
giving birth to a large offspring. The father, on the other hand, gets all the benefit
of larger offspring, but pays none of the costs. Therefore his copy is activated.
The symbolism of a tug-of-war represents the mother's genetic self-interest in
countering the growth-enhancing demands of the father's genes expressed in the
foetus—the mother, after all, has to gestate and give birth to the baby at
enormous cost to herself.
CHRISTOPHER BADCOCK is a Reader in Sociology at the London School of Economics and the author of PsychoDarwinism and Evolutionary Psychology: A Clinical Introduction.
Christopher Badcock's Edge Bio Page
... |
COMPLETE TRANSCRIPT NOW AVAILABLE
What we're saying is that there is a technology emerging from behavioral economics. It's not only an abstract thing. You can do things with it. We are just at the beginning. I thought that the input of psychology into behavioral economics was done. But hearing Sendhil was very encouraging because there was a lot of new psychology there. That conversation is continuing and it looks to me as if that conversation is going to go forward. It's pretty intuitive, based on research, good theory, and important. —Daniel Kahneman
A
SHORT COURSE IN BEHAVIORAL
ECONOMICS
Richard Thaler, Sendhil
Mullainathan, Daniel Kahneman
Edge Master Class 2008
Richard Thaler, Sendhil
Mullainathan, Daniel Kahneman
Sonoma,
CA, July 25-27, 2008
AN EDGE SPECIAL
PROJECT
RICHARD H. THALER, Director, Center for Decision Research, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business; Coauthor (with Cass Sunstein), Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness.
SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN, Professor of Economics, Harvard; recipient, MacArthur award; Executive Director, Ideas 42, Institute of Quantitative Social Science, Harvard.
DANIEL KAHNEMAN, Emeritus Professor of Psychology, Princeton; Recipient, Nobel Prize, Economics, 2002.
PARTICIPANTS: Jeff Bezos, Founder, Amazon.com; John Brockman, Edge Foundation, Inc.; Max Brockman, Brockman, Inc.; George Dyson, Science Historian; Author, Darwin Among the Machines; W. Daniel Hillis, Computer Scientist; Cofounder, Applied Minds; Author, The Pattern on the Stone; Daniel Kahneman, Psychologist; Nobel Laureate, Princeton University; Salar Kamangar, Google; France LeClerc, Marketing Professor; Katinka Matson, Edge Foundation, Inc.; Sendhil Mullainathan, Professor of Economics, Harvard University; Executive Director, Ideas 42, Institute of Quantitative Social Science; Elon Musk, Physicist; Founder, Tesla Motors, SpaceX; Nathan Myhrvold, Physicist; Founder, Intellectual Venture, LLC; Event Photographer; Sean Parker, The Founders Fund; Cofounder: Napster, Plaxo, Facebook; Paul Romer, Economist, Stanford; Richard Thaler, Behavioral Economist, Director of the Center for Decision Research, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business; coauthor of Nudge; Anne Treisman, Psychologist, Princeton University; Evan Williams, Founder, Blogger, Twitter.
INTRODUCTION
By Daniel Kahneman
... I cannot imagine a psychologist who could be counted as a good economist without formal training in that discipline, but it seems to be easier for economists to be good psychologists. This is certainly the case for both Dick and Sendhil Mullainathan—they know a great deal of what is going on in modern psychology, but more importantly they have superb psychological intuition and are willing to trust it. ...
FIRST DAY SUMMARY
By Nathan Myhrvold
Sendhil Mullainathan gave a fascinating talk about applying behavior economics to understand poverty. If this succeeds (it is a work in progress) it would be extremely important. ...
SECOND DAY SUMMARY
By George Dyson
...After the break we begin to wrap things up. Richard Thaler suggests a "nudge" model of the world. The same way a digital camera has both an "expert mode" and an "idiot mode," what the economy needs is an "idiot mode" resistant to experts making mistakes. ...

Photo Gallery: A Short Course In Behavioral Economics
If you remember one thing from this session, let it be this one: There is no way of avoiding meddling. People sometimes have the confused idea that we are pro meddling. That is a ridiculous notion. It's impossible not to meddle. Given that we can't avoid meddling, let's meddle in a good way.
LIBERTARIAN PATERNALISM: WHY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE NOT TO NUDGE (Class 1)
Richard Thaler
At a minimum, what we're saying is that in every market where there is now required written disclosure, you have to give the same information electronically and we think intelligently how best to do that. In a sentence that's the nature of the proposal. —Richard Thaler
IMPROVING CHOICES WITH MACHINE READABLE DISCLOSURE
(Class 2)
Richard Thaler & Sendhil Mullainathan
Let's put aside poverty alleviation for a second, and let's ask, "Is there something intrinsic to poverty that has value and that is worth studying in and of itself?" One of the reasons that is the case is that, purely aside from magic bullets, we need to understand are there unifying principles under conditions of scarcity that can help us understand behavior and to craft intervention. If we feel that conditions of scarcity evoke certain psychology, then that, not to mention pure scientific interest, will affect a vast majority of interventions. It's an important and old question.
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SCARCITY (Class 3)
Sendhil Mullainathan
There's new technology emerging from behavioral economics and we are just starting to make use of that. I thought the input of psychology into economics was finished but clearly it's not!
TWO BIG THINGS HAPPENING IN PSYCHOLOGY TODAY (Class 4) Daniel Kahneman
I want to close a loop, which I'm calling "The Irony of Poverty." On the one hand, lack of slack tells us the poor must make higher quality decisions because they don't have slack to help buffer them with things. But even though they have to supply higher quality decisions, they're in a worse position to supply them because they're depleted. That is the ultimate irony of poverty. You're getting cut twice.
THE IRONY OF POVERTY (Class 5)
Sendhil Mullainathan
A lot of what makes behavioral economics interesting is psychology, it is about what happens inside the mind. These phenomena are taking things that are happening inside the mind and interfacing them with things happening in the world, the environment, and getting feedback or getting interesting responses from that.— Sendhil Mullainathan
PUTTING PSYCHOLOGY INTO BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS (Class 6)
Richard Thaler, Daniel Kahneman, Sendhil Mullainathan

Photo Gallery: The San Francisco 2008 Science Dinner
|
OF GENITAL THIEVES
The exploration of economic irrationality
By Andrian Kreye
It was one of those watershed moments in science at which you would like to have been present. Last summer in Sonoma, three generations behavioral economists convened at a Master Class run by the Edge Foundation...If you are interested in getting your head around the current global economic meltdown, read through the transcript of this master class once more this autumn. You may not find direct answers, but you will certainly find elements of an explanation. ...

ANDRIAN KREYE is the editor of the Feuilleton of Sueddeutsche Zeitung in Munich. He is also an Edge contributor.
Andrian Kreye's Edge Bio Page
... |
The problem of consciousness is understanding how this world is there for us. It shows up in our senses. It shows up in our thoughts. Our feelings and interests and concerns are directed to and embrace this world around us. We think, we feel, the world shows up for us. To me that's the problem of consciousness. That is a real problem that needs to be studied, and it's a special problem.
A useful analogy is life. What is life? We can point to all sorts of chemical processes, metabolic processes, reproductive processes that are present where there is life. But we ask, where is the life? You don't say life is a thing inside the organism. The life is this process that the organism is participating in, a process that involves an environmental niche and dynamic selectivity. If you want to find the life, look to the dynamic of the animal's engagement with its world. The life is there. The life is not inside the animal. The life is the way the animal is in the world.
THE PROBLEM OF CONSCIOUSNESS
A
Talk with Alva Noë


ALVA NOË is Professor of Philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley. He works principally on the philosophy of mind and cognitive science, with special interest in the theory of perception, and is also interested in the philosophy of art, the history of analytic philosophy, Phenomenology, and Wittgenstein.
Alva Noë's Edge Bio Page
THE REALITY CLUB: Arnold Trehub
... |
| THE DOUBLE HELIX MEDAL FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH [11.6.08]

James D. Watson & J. Craig Venter
At the Cold Spring Harbor Board of Director's Dinner in New York City, James Watson and Craig Venter were co-recipients of the Double Helix Medal for Scientific Research. |
|
Once again, real life is not a casino with simple bets. This is the error that helps the banking system go bust with an astonishing regularity.
REAL LIFE IS NOT A CASINO
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Introduction
On New Years day I received a a prescient essay from Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, as his response to the 2008 Edge Question: "What Have You Change Your Mind About?" In "Real Life Is Not A Casino", he wrote:
I've shown that institutions that are exposed to negative black swans—such as banks and some classes of insurance ventures—have almost never been profitable over long periods. The problem of the illustrative current subprime mortgage mess is not so much that the "quants" and other pseudo-experts in bank risk-management were wrong about the probabilities (they were) but that they were severely wrong about the different layers of depth of potential negative outcomes.
Taleb had changed his mind about his belief "in the centrality of probability in life, and advocating that we should express everything in terms of degrees of credence, with unitary probabilities as a special case for total certainties and null for total implausibility".
Critical thinking, knowledge, beliefs—everything needed to be probabilized. Until I came to realize, twelve years ago, that I was wrong in this notion that the calculus of probability could be a guide to life and help society. Indeed, it is only in very rare circumstances that probability (by itself) is a guide to decision making. It is a clumsy academic construction, extremely artificial, and nonobservable. Probability is backed out of decisions; it is not a construct to be handled in a stand-alone way in real-life decision making. It has caused harm in many fields.
The essay is one of more than one hundred that have been edited for a new Edge book What Have You Changed Your Mind About? (forthcoming, Harper Collins, January 9th). See below.
—John Brockman
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is an essayist and mathematical trader and the author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Edge Bio page
Further reading on Edge: The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics By Nassim Nicholas Taleb [9.15.08] |
In her usual faux-folksy style, Palin lit out after a congressional earmark involving these insects: "You've heard about some of these pet projects — they really don't make a whole lot of sense — and sometimes these dollars go to projects that have little or nothing to do with the public good. Things like fruit-fly research in Paris, France. I kid you not." (Reading this diatribe is not sufficient; only video reveals the scorn and condescension dripping from her words.)
SWATTING ATTACKS ON FRUIT FLIES AND SCIENCE
By Jerry Coyne

Sarah Palin's criticism of the critters is just bad buzz. Research on them offers insights into learning, genes, diseases.
JERRY
COYNE is a professor in the department of ecology and evolution
at the University of Chicago, where he
works on diverse areas of evolutionary genetics. He is the author
(with H. Allen Orr) of Speciation, and Why Evolution Is True.
Jerry
Coyne's Edge Bio
Page |
|
____
Enough already. I bit my tongue when I heard that Sarah Palin believed that dinosaurs and humans once lived side by side and that she and John McCain wanted creationism taught in the public schools.
And I just shook my head when McCain derided proposed funding for a sophisticated planetarium projection machine as wasteful spending on an "overhead projector."
But the Republican ticket's war on science has finally gone too far. Last week, Sarah Palin dissed research on fruit flies.
In her usual faux-folksy style, Palin lit out after a congressional earmark involving these insects: "You've heard about some of these pet projects — they really don't make a whole lot of sense — and sometimes these dollars go to projects that have little or nothing to do with the public good. Things like fruit-fly research in Paris, France. I kid you not." (Reading this diatribe is not sufficient; only video reveals the scorn and condescension dripping from her words.)
As a geneticist, I've worked on fruit flies in the laboratory for three decades. I know the fruit fly. The fruit fly is a friend of mine. And believe me, Sarah Palin doesn't know anything about fruit flies.
...
Further reading on Edge: "Don't Know Much Biology" By Jerry Coyne |
Why do we live in a society that, having ruined its natural environment, is now about to knowingly ruin its social environment and the lives of an entire generation? In his book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Jared Diamond specified the causes that encourage elites to destroy their societies."They feel safe because the perpetrators are typically concentrated (few in number) and highly motivated by the prospect of reaping big, certain, and immediate profits, while the losses are spread over large numbers of individuals."
WHAT'S NEXT? [10.15.08]
By Frank Schirrmacher

FRANK SCHIRRMACHER is a German journalist, essayist, writer, and since 1994 co-publisher of the leading national German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). He is one of Germanys leading journalists.
...
Further Reading on Edge: "Wake-Up Call for Europe Tech" By Frank Schirrmacher[7.10.00] |
"Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks – when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur ….I shiver at the thought."
— Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan (2006) |
ECONOMIC DIS-EQUILIBRIUM [9.24.08]
Can You Have Your House And Spend It Too?
By George Dyson

George Dyson writes: "Readers of Nassim Taleb's The Fourth Quadrant may enjoy the following piece on fraud-resistant financial instruments of the 13th century—progenitors of a multitude of derivatives that are plaguing us today." ...
...The breakthrough was in money being duplicated: the King gathered real gold and silver into the treasury through the Exchequer, with the tally given in return attesting to the credit of the holder who could enter into trade, manufacturing, or other ventures, eventually producing real wealth with nothing more than a notched wooden stick. So what's the problem? Aren't we just passing around digital versions of the tallies we've been using for almost one thousand years? Aren't mortgages, whether prime or sub-prime, just a modern version of paying for houses with fraud-resistant sticks? ...
...
Further Reading on Edge: "The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics" By Nassim Nicholas Taleb [9.15.08] |

On "THE
FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS"
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
JARON
LANIER: This is a superb piece and I hope it is widely
read and taken to heart in Wall Street, Silicon Valley,
and Washington. All these centers of power and creativity
are drowning in illusions brought about by thunderous misuses
of statistics that have become implacably seductive only
with the recent availability of vast, connected computer
resources.
Edge.org
has become the most dramatic point of contact between the
critics and supporters of the fallacies Taleb elucidates. ...
GEORGE DYSON: ...What to do now? I'd prefer less Paulson, and more Newton. In the 17th century, English coinage had become widely debased, much as our system of financial instruments has become debased today. In 1696, Sir Isaac Newton was appointed Warden of the Mint, with authority to prosecute counterfeiters, who were not only hung, but drawn and quartered. This, accompanied by a systematic recoinage, worked.
... |
THE
FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS [9.15.08]
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
An Edge Original
Essay

Statistical
and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge;
statistics is what tells you if something is true, false,
or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science";
it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools
of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not
think probabilistically—but... let's not be suckers.
The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the
casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school.
Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government
right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let's face it:
use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks
did just blow up the banking system).
REALITY
CLUB: Jaron
Lanier, George Dyson
BLOGWATCH
... |
WHAT MAKES PEOPLE VOTE REPUBLICAN? [9.9.08]
By Jonathan Haidt

...the second rule of moral psychology is that morality is not just about how we treat each other (as most liberals think); it is also about binding groups together, supporting essential institutions, and living in a sanctified and noble way. When Republicans say that Democrats "just don't get it," this is the "it" to which they refer.
THE REALITY CLUB: Daniel Everett, Howard Gardner, Michael Shermer, Scott Atran, James Fowler, Alison Gopnik, Sam Harris, James O'Donnell, Roger Schank
BLOGWATCH
...
|
A SLICE OF SCIFOO [9.3..07]
By Frank Wilczek


SciFoo is a conference like no other. It brings together a mad mix from the worlds of science, technology, and other branches of the ineffable Third Culture at the Google campus in Mountain View. Improvised, loose, massively parallel—it's a happening. If you're not overwhelmed by the rush of ideas then you're not paying attention.
REALITY CLUB: Lee Smolin, Betsy Devine, George Dyson
... |
 |
PRE-ORDER NOW
WHAT HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ABOUT
Edited by John Brockman
With An Introduction By BRIAN ENO
"A thought-provoking collection of focused and tightly argued pieces demonstrating the courage to change strongly held convictions."
Publishers Weekly
"An intellectual treasure trove"
San
Francisco Chronicle

[Forthcoming, January 9, 2009]
Contributors include: STEVEN PINKER on the future of human evolution • RICHARD DAWKINS on the mysteries of courtship • SAM HARRIS on why Mother Nature is not our friend • NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB on the irrelevance of probability • ALUN ANDERSON on the reality of global warming • ALAN ALDA considers, reconsiders, and re-reconsiders God • LISA RANDALL on the secrets of the Sun • RAY KURZWEIL on the possibility of extraterrestrial life • BRIAN ENO on what it means to be a "revolutionary" • HELEN FISHER on love, fidelity, and the viability of marriage…and many others.
Praise for the online publication of
What Have You Change Your Mind About?
"The
splendidly enlightened Edge website (www.edge.org) has rounded off
each year of inter-disciplinary debate by asking its heavy-hitting
contributors to answer one question. I strongly recommend a visit." The
Independent
"A
great event in the Anglo-Saxon culture." El
Mundo
"As
fascinating and weighty as one would imagine." The
Independent
"They
are the intellectual elite, the brains the rest of us rely on to
make sense of the universe and answer the big questions. But in
a refreshing show of new year humility, the world's best thinkers
have admitted that from time to time even they are forced to change
their minds." The Guardian
"Even the world’s
best brains have to admit to being wrong sometimes: here, leading scientists
respond to a new year challenge." The
Times
"Provocative
ideas put forward today by leading figures."The
Telegraph
The
world's finest minds have responded with some of the most insightful,
humbling, fascinating confessions and anecdotes, an intellectual
treasure trove. ... Best three or four hours of intense, enlightening
reading you can do for the new year. Read it now." San
Francisco Chronicle
"As
in the past, these world-class thinkers have responded to impossibly
open-ended questions with erudition, imagination and clarity." The
News & Observer
"A
jolt of fresh thinking...The answers address a fabulous array of issues.
This is the intellectual equivalent of a New Year's dip in the lake — bracing,
possibly shriek-inducing, and bound to wake you up." The
Globe and Mail
"Answers
ring like scientific odes to uncertainty, humility and doubt; passionate
pleas for critical thought in a world threatened by blind convictions." The
Toronto Star
"For
an exceptionally high quotient of interesting ideas to words, this
is hard to beat. ...What a feast of egg-head opinionating!" National
Review Online
|
|
WHAT ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT?
Today's Leading Thinkers on Why Things Are Good and Getting Better
Edited by John Brockman
Introduction
by DANIEL C. DENNETT

[2007]
"The
optimistic visions seem not just wonderful but plausible." Wall
Street Journal
"Persuasively
upbeat." O, The Oprah Magazine
"Our
greatest minds provide nutshell insights on how science will help
forge a better world ahead." Seed
"Uplifting...an
enthralling book." The Mail on Sunday
|
|
WHAT IS YOUR DANGEROUS IDEA?
Today's Leading Thinkers on the Unthinkable
Edited
by John Brockman
Introduction
by STEVEN PINKER
Afterword
by RICHARD DAWKINS

[2006]
"Danger – brilliant
minds at work...A brilliant bok: exhilarating, hilarious, and chilling." The
Evening Standard (London)
"A selection of the most
explosive ideas of our age." Sunday
Herald
"Provocative" The
Independent
"Challenging notions put forward by
some of the world’s sharpest minds" Sunday
Times
"A titillating compilation" The
Guardian
"Reads like an intriguing dinner party
conversation among great minds in science" Discover
|
|
WHAT WE BELIEVE BUT CANNOT PROVE?
Today's Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty
Edited by John Brockman
Introduction by IAN MCEWAN

[2006]
"Whether or not we believe proof or prove belief, understanding belief itself becomes essential in a time when so many people in the world are ardent believers." LA Times
"Belief appears to motivate even the most rigorously scientific minds. It stimulates and challenges, it tricks us into holding things to be true against our better judgment, and, like scepticism -its opposite -it serves a function in science that is playful as well as thought-provoking. not we believe proof or prove belief, understanding belief itself becomes essential in a time when so many people in the world are ardent believers." The Times
"John Brockman is the PT Barnum of popular science. He has always been a great huckster of ideas." The Observer
"An
unprecedented roster of brilliant minds, the sum of which is nothing
short of an oracle — a book ro be dog-eared and debated." Seed
"Scientific
pipedreams at their very best." The
Guardian
"Makes for some astounding
reading." Boston Globe
"Fantastically
stimulating...It's like the crack cocaine of the thinking world....
Once you start, you can't stop thinking about that question." BBC
Radio 4
"Intellectual
and creative magnificence" The
Skeptical Inquirer
|
|
|
Edge 267
November 26, 2008
(4,500 words)
|

THE NEW YORK TIMES
November 30, 2008
YOU'RE LEAVING A DIGITAL TRRAIL. WHAT ABOUT PRIVACY?
By John Markoff
...Alex Pentland, a professor at the Media Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is leading the dormitory research project, was a co-founder of Sense Networks. He is part of a new generation of researchers who have relatively effortless access to data that in the past was either painstakingly assembled by hand or acquired from questionnaires or interviews that relied on the memories and honesty of the subjects.
The Media Lab researchers have worked with Hitachi Data Systems, the Japanese technology company, to use some of the lab’s technologies to improve businesses’ efficiency. For example, by equipping employees with sensor badges that generate the same kinds of data provided by the students’ smartphones, the researchers determined that face-to-face communication was far more important to an organization’s work than was generally believed.
Productivity improved 30 percent with an incremental increase in face-to-face communication, Dr. Pentland said. The results were so promising that Hitachi has established a consulting business that overhauls organizations via the researchers’ techniques.
Dr. Pentland calls his research “reality mining” to differentiate it from an earlier generation of data mining conducted through more traditional methods.
Dr. Pentland “is the emperor of networked sensor research,” said Michael Macy, a sociologist at Cornell who studies communications networks and their role as social networks. People and organizations, he said, are increasingly choosing to interact with one another through digital means that record traces of those interactions. “This allows scientists to study those interactions in ways that five years ago we never would have thought we could do,” he said.
|

THE NEW YORK TIMES
November 30, 2008
DIGITAL DOMAIN
ONLY THE RICH CAN AFFOR IT. SHOULD TAXPPAYERS TAKE IT BACK?
By Randall Stross
The Tesla Roadster is an electric car that goes fast, looks sensational and excites envy. The seductive appearance, however, obscures some inconvenient truths: its all-electric technology remains woefully immature and don’t-even-ask expensive. If enough billionaires step forward to inject additional capital to keep the doors of its manufacturer, Tesla Motors, open, I’m happy for all parties. ...
...Tesla’s backers in Silicon Valley can be forgiven for hoping for a miraculous technical breakthrough, because Moore’s Law makes miracles appear in the Valley every day: costs drop by half every two years, again and again and again. The law is actually a rule of thumb, not a scientific law, and is based on the recurring doubling of transistors placed on an integrated circuit.
Unfortunately for Tesla, batteries are based on chemistry and have nothing to do with Moore’s Law. Lawrence H. Dubois, chief technology officer at ATMI, a semiconductor industry supplier, said, “With batteries, you can’t just squeeze more energy into a smaller and smaller space the way you can squeeze more transistors.”
Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla, said his company would benefit from what he called “a weak Moore’s Law,” referring to the 8 percent annual improvements in the price performance of lithium-ion batteries. But 8 percent, compounded, would bring too few benefits, too late to Tesla: it would take nine years to halve the price of its battery pack. ...
|
NATURE
November 20, 2008
DARWIN200: THE NEEDS OF THE MANY
The idea that natural selection acts on groups, as well as individuals, is a source of unending debate. Marek Kohn reports on what the two sides disagree about — and why it matters to them.
If biologists have learnt one thing about evolution over the past 40 years, it is that natural selection does not work for the good of the group. The defining insight of modern Darwinism is that selection 'sees' individuals and acts on them through the genes they embody. To imagine otherwise, generations of students have been warned, is to fall into a naive error definitively exposed as such in the mid-1960s.
Yet group selection — the idea that evolution can choose between groups, not just the individuals that make them up — has a higher profile today than at any time since its apparent banishment from mainstream evolutionary theory. And it gets better press, too. This is in part owing to the efforts of David Sloan Wilson, of Binghamton University in New York, who argues that the dismissal of group selection was a major historical error that needs to be rectified. And it does not hurt that he has been joined by Edward O. Wilson, the great naturalist and authority on social insects. They and many others have worked to reposition group selection within the broader theme of selection that acts simultaneously at multiple levels. ...
...Kin selection was easily and powerfully expressed in mathematics, and became the new orthodoxy, its ascendancy cemented in place by its forceful and compelling popularization in Richard Dawkins's The Selfish Gene (Oxford Univ. Press, 1976). Group selection might be possible in theory, these thinkers allowed, but it could be ignored in practice. As the theorist George C. Williams declared in his 1966 book Adaptation and Natural Selection (Princeton Univ. Press) — a rallying call against group selection that had great influence in America — "the higher levels of selection are impotent".
|
NATURE
November 19, 2008
Editorial
DARWIN200: BEYOND THE ORIGIN
This issue of Nature anticipates next year's bicentenary of Charles Darwin's birth and the 150th anniversary of On The Origin of Species. We begin here with a look 50 years into the future.
One distinct possibility is that evidence of life beyond Earth will be found by detecting tell-tale features in the spectra of planets orbiting other stars. Although astronomers are hardly likely to be able to observe variation and evolution of that life in the next 50 years, detection alone could provide insight into the frequency of life's origination. And that, in turn, could help illuminate how life came to be on Earth — a problem that classical Darwinism is hard put to answer.
An even more likely development is that life will be created de novo here on Earth. The first experiments in whole-organism synthetic biology, such as the synthetic mycoplasma being worked on at the J. Craig Venter Institute in Rockville, Maryland, will cleave quite closely to the designs already developed by natural selection.
|

NEW SCIENTIST
November 22, 2008
INTERVIEW:
THE COSMIC REVOLUTIONARY
Ivan Semeniuk
Will the next Einstein come from Africa? If Neil Turok gets his wish the answer will be a resounding yes. When he's not pondering the origin of the universe, Turok is setting up mathematical science institutes across Africa.
NEIL Turok may not be a visitor from another dimension, but he could certainly play one on TV. With an other-worldly energy, he evinces the gentle curiosity of an outsider accustomed to crossing barriers. When he walks into a room, the dust of three continents trails behind him.
Turok is a theoretical physicist and cosmologist whose journey has taken him from his South African homeland to some of the world's most renowned scientific institutions, including Fermilab, Princeton and Cambridge. Now, at 50, Turok finds himself in starting anew once again, taking the reins of what may be the most ambitious intellectual experiment on Earth. ...
...All of this suits Turok who, like Lazaridis, is no stranger to going against the grain. As a scientist he is best known, along with collaborator Paul Steinhardt of Princeton University, for conceiving the "ekpyrotic universe", which re-imagines the big bang as a collision between two branes - constructs of string theory - in a higher-dimensional space. According to the theory, the collisions occur again and again, producing a cyclic universe. ... |

NEW SCIENTIST
November 22, 2008
A SOMETHING-FOR-NOTHING UNIVERSE
By Lawrence Krauss
...Key to this was the notion of inflation, introduced by physicist Alan Guth to explain several cosmological puzzles, including that the universe appeared close to flat even after 14 billion years of expansion. A flat universe is like the top of a hill. If you are a little away from it - a bit open or a bit closed - the expansion of the universe soon drives you far away from this value, just as a ball that is a short distance from a hilltop will roll down to the bottom. Inflation, on the other hand, drives the universe towards flatness - just as blowing up a ball reduces the curvature of its surface.
But as Guth emphasised, there is another reason for favouring a flat universe: it is fundamentally beautiful. In a flat universe, the total gravitational energy is precisely zero. ... |

NEW YORK TIMES
November 27, 2008
EVEN IF YOU CAN'T BUY IT, HAPPINESS IS BIG BUSINESS
Patricia Leigh Brown
SAN FRANCISCO — The stock market has been on a roller coaster, banks are going under, unemployment is skyrocketing, and foreclosed homes pepper the landscape. What better time for a happiness conference? ...
...Planned before the current crises, the first American “Happiness and Its Causes” conference was equal parts Aristotle and Oprah. It brought together heavy hitters like Paul Ekman, the psychologist known for deciphering facial “microexpressions” that reveal feelings, and Robert Sapolsky, the Stanford biologist. They considered topics like “Compassion and the Pursuit of Happiness” and “Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers."
...Professor Sapolsky of Stanford made a similar point about humans and baboons. Modern stress disorders contributing to hypertension, heart disease and other illnesses are the result of a disjuncture between primitive conditions and our own — or, as he put it, “running for your life in the savannah versus 30-year mortgages.”
The relatively new field of behavioral neurogenetics is exploring a handful of genes that seem to be related to depression, anxiety, addictive personality, sensation seeking and other traits. But, Professor Sapolsky said in a follow-up e-mail message, a person’s risk seems not predetermined but rather the result of interactions of genes and the environment, especially stressors in childhood.
Social support is vital, no matter how healthy you are, he told the crowd. “How much you groom somebody else is more important than who grooms you.” ... |

NEW YORK TIMES
November 25, 2008
BOOKS OF THE TIMES
Polly Wanna Cracker? Squawk! Do Better, That’s So Bush League
By Michiko Kakutani
When Alex the African gray parrot died in 2007, the world mourned. The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times and The Boston Globe ran articles reviewing his life achievements. The Economist devoted its obituary for the week of Sept. 22, 2007, to Alex. (Earlier weeks had featured Luciano Pavarotti and Ingmar Bergman.) ABC News, CNN and National Public Radio did segments about his lifetime collaboration with the scientist Irene M. Pepperberg. And an Internet condolence book (remembering-alex.org) was set up so that fans could grieve in public.
“Alex, the African gray parrot who was smarter than the average U.S. president, has died at the relatively tender age of 31,” read an obituary in The Guardian of London. “He could count to six, identify colors, understand concepts such as bigger and smaller and had a vocabulary of 150 words. To his supporters he was proof that the phrase ‘birdbrain’ should be expunged from the dictionary.”
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EL MUNDO por dentro
24 de noviembre
HOY SÍ QUE ESTÁ EL PERIÓDICO EN EL FILO (EDGE) DE LA NOTICIA
Arcadi Espada
El periódico está, destacadamente, en la cover de Edge.

Para hablar de esta noticia extraordinaria debo vencer el pudor de estar vinculado al asunto. Debo y puedo. Edge es uno de los lugares del mundo de hoy. Todo lo que allí se piensa tiene interés. Por si fuera poco las notas de sociedad de la página, y los sombreros de Brockman, rezuman un inconfundible encanto californiano. Hay otra cuestión, naturalmente. El periódico fue el único de los que se editan en España que habló de la presentación en Madrid de Tercera Cultura. Mérito de su sección de Ciencia. Mérito especial cuando se sacan ahora las correspondientes sumas y restas: ¿Cómo es posible que un asunto al que Edge dedica su cover sólo merezca la atención de un periódico español? Y por otra parte. Edge ha publicado su página sin que haya mediado iniciativa alguna para que lo hiciera por parte de los responsables de Cultura 3.0. Lo ha hecho porque tiene un competente servicio de prensa que repasa la actualidad de la Tercera Cultura en un buen número de periódicos del mundo. Lo ha hecho, en fin, porque un periódico en el mundo se había hecho eco de la presentación de Madrid.
Buenos días.
...
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NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE
November 23, 2008
IDEA LAB
BECOMING SCREEN LITERATE
By Kevin Kelly
Everywhere we look, we see screens. The other day I watched clips from a movie as I pumped gas into my car. The other night I saw a movie on the backseat of a plane. We will watch anywhere. Screens playing video pop up in the most unexpected places — like A.T.M. machines and supermarket checkout lines and tiny phones; some movie fans watch entire films in between calls. These ever-present screens have created an audience for very short moving pictures, as brief as three minutes, while cheap digital creation tools have empowered a new generation of filmmakers, who are rapidly filling up those screens. We are headed toward screen ubiquity.
When technology shifts, it bends the culture. Once, long ago, culture revolved around the spoken word. The oral skills of memorization, recitation and rhetoric instilled in societies a reverence for the past, the ambiguous, the ornate and the subjective. Then, about 500 years ago, orality was overthrown by technology. Gutenberg’s invention of metallic movable type elevated writing into a central position in the culture. By the means of cheap and perfect copies, text became the engine of change and the foundation of stability. From printing came journalism, science and the mathematics of libraries and law. The distribution-and-display device that we call printing instilled in society a reverence for precision (of black ink on white paper), an appreciation for linear logic (in a sentence), a passion for objectivity (of printed fact) and an allegiance to authority (via authors), whose truth was as fixed and final as a book. In the West, we became people of the book. ...
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THE THIRD CULTURE IN SPAIN
"The purpose of this initiative is to establish a movement in Spain based on this new way of perceiving culture, and promote it as a vehicle for development of critical opinion in our country. More and more people willing to educate themselves and get rid of superstitions and dogmas which reduces your field of personal and social action. Democracy works with people armed with critical thinking. A society of illiterates in the hands of scoundrels (Perez Reverte), can never be democratic." — Arcadi Espada
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EL MUNDO
November 18, 2008
AÚNA CIENCIA Y HUMANISMO
NACE LA PLATAFORMA TERCERA CULTURA
(Birth of the Third Culture Platform)
Pretende crear puentes entre la ciencia de vanguardia y el pensamiento crítico
Participan prestigiosos intelectuales y científicos españoles
Rosa M. Tristan
MADRID.- Aunar la ciencia con el pensamiento crítico es el objetivo de la Plataforma Tercera Cultura (Cultura 3.0), que acaba de ser puesta en marcha por un grupo de intelectuales e investigadores de diversas áreas. Se trata de una nueva vía contra los prejuicios y los dogmas que pretende crear un puente entre disciplinas que hasta ahora no han tenido un nexo en el de
bate cotidiano.
Entre los fundadores de la nueva plataforma, que tendrá su canal de comunicación en la web www.terceracultura.net, están el escritor y columnista de EL MUNDO Arcadi Espada, el director de la revista Muy Interesante, José Pardina, el editor de la web La Revolución Naturalista, Eduardo Robredo y la antropóloga Teresa Giménez Barbat.. ...
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EL MUNDO por dentro
22 de noviembre
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